All-round Analysis of How to Play with Photovoltaic Policy Bidding in 2019?
Sitting at my home in Hunan, I used solar energy from Gansu to generate electricity. Wind power from the three northeastern provinces, through Tongliao in Inner Mongolia, instantly lit up thousands of lights in Shandong. With the growth of trans-provincial and trans-regional transportation of clean energy, China's "abandonment of wind" and "abandonment of light" have improved significantly since this year.
Take the data released by the State Grid Corporation on the 11th as an example. In the first quarter, the new energy generating capacity in the company's operating area reached 115.8 billion kilowatt hours, up 10% year on year. New energy power generation accounted for 9.1%, up 0.7 percentage points year on year. Waste electricity from new energy sources reached 4.66 billion kilowatt-hours, down 31% year-on-year. The electricity rejection rate was 3.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the same period of last year, and maintained the good trend of "Shuang Sheng and Double Decline".
According to Liu Jinsong, deputy director of the State Grid Development Department, in recent years, the State Grid has continued to strengthen the construction of new energy grid connection and transmission projects, and has built a number of long-distance ultra-high voltage transmission lines, further improving the power grid's ability to optimize the allocation of large-scale resources. At the same time, through continuously improving the real-time balance monitoring and dispatching of the power grid and continuously expanding the trading scale of the clean energy market, the clean energy consumption has achieved remarkable results.
It is understood that the clean energy that needs to be absorbed at present is not only hydropower in the southwest region and large-scale photovoltaic and wind power installations in the "three northern" regions, but also distributed photovoltaic power generation across the country, especially photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects scattered among households in remote rural areas. By the end of 2018, the national grid had a cumulative grid-connected capacity of 47.01 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation, an increase of 67% over the end of 2017.
"It is suggested that all localities should reasonably determine the scale, layout and timing of clean energy construction in accordance with the consumption target and in combination with their own conditions and capabilities." Liu Jinsong said that although it is very difficult to absorb, power grid enterprises will continue to take more measures and improve the utilization rate of new energy.
He said that in 2019, the State Grid will speed up the transmission of UHVDC from Zhangbei to Xiong 'an, Qinghai to Henan, Yazhong to Jiangxi, and northern Shaanxi to Wuhan.
On April 12, the long-awaited photovoltaic policy was finally issued in the form of a draft for comments, which is undoubtedly a thirst-quenching rain for the photovoltaic industry that has been waiting for anxiety.
I. sequence of project construction
According to the draft, the 2019 affordable access project has the priority of construction, and regions that do not have the conditions to build affordable access projects will be included in the scope of state subsidies through competition according to the photovoltaic power generation competition method. Among them, the leading base, demonstration base and other separately competing projects are not subject to subsidy declaration and competitive ranking, and the on-line electricity price and corresponding subsidy standards determined by each project competition are implemented.
II. Types of Subsidized Projects
In 2019, subsidized projects are divided into photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects, household photovoltaic projects, ordinary photovoltaic power stations (with installed capacity of 6 MW or more, industrial and commercial distributed (various distributed photovoltaic projects other than household photovoltaic projects with local development, nearby utilization and single-point grid-connected installed capacity of less than 6 MW), special projects and demonstration projects organized by the state. These five types of projects divide up 3 billion subsidy cakes (the subsidies required for photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects are not within 3 billion).
Of this amount, 750 million yuan will be used for household photovoltaic projects (equivalent to 3.5 million kilowatts) and 2.25 billion yuan will be used for subsidized bidding projects (excluding photovoltaic poverty alleviation) to organize project construction.
III. Electricity Price Subsidy
Since the National Development and Reform Commission has not yet issued a 2019 subsidy standard for photovoltaic power generation, the State Energy Administration has proposed a revised electricity price. According to the revised price quotation of the on-line electricity price for the subsidized items, the items to be included in the subsidy scope will be selected in descending order.
According to the draft, ordinary photovoltaic power stations and full-scale online industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects: revised electricity price for Class II resource areas = reported electricity price -0.05 yuan/kWh, revised electricity price for Class III resource areas = reported electricity price -0.15 yuan/kWh.
Distributed Photovoltaic Generation Projects for Self-Use and Surplus Electricity Online Industry and Commerce: Revised Electricity Price = Declared Electricity Price-Benchmark Electricity Price for Coal Burning in the Province +0.3 yuan/KWH. For projects where Benchmark Electricity Price for Coal Burning is less than 0.3 yuan/KWH, the Declared Electricity Price will not be revised.
Shi jingli, a researcher and senior engineer at the renewable energy center of the energy research institute of the national development and reform Commission, said that under the mode of spontaneous self-use and surplus electricity connection, if subsidies are required, they will have to participate in bidding. if there is no electricity supply on the grid, the total electricity supply subsidy will be "the reported electricity supply price-coal burning".
According to rough calculation, the surplus electricity grid connection mode adopts the weighted average method to declare the electricity price, which is more competitive than full grid connection, and also conforms to the principle of nearby settlement in the policy. In fact, the so-called full Or surplus electricity mode will not be treated separately in the national ranking in the declaration process. in the end, which mode to choose should be the lower declaration electricity price after the enterprise calculates its expected return rate.
According to the 2018 desulfurization coal electricity price table, the areas that are less than 0.3 yuan include Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, which means that the electricity price subsidies in these three areas are mainly based on the declared electricity price.
It should be noted that the declared electricity price is 0.1 per kilowatt-hour as the minimum quotation unit, which means that the declaration of electricity price can be accurate to 4 decimal places, requiring the owner to make careful calculations to avoid the loss of a single inch and the difference of thousands of miles.
The revised projects with the same on-line electricity price will be ranked according to the installed capacity of each project from small to large. It can be said that under the same electricity price, the projects with smaller capacity have priority.
The draft also opens a through train to owners who hold property rights in buildings and venues. These owners can directly apply for state subsidies for bidding through the provincial energy authorities during construction projects, without having to conduct bidding sequencing within the province. However, industrial and commercial projects and projects for which enterprises have already carried out preliminary work can also skip the bidding in the province after being confirmed by the local government and directly apply for state subsidy bidding through provincial departments.
Monitoring and Evaluation Results of Photovoltaic Market
New photovoltaic projects are strictly prohibited to be built first, and are subject to the market environment monitoring and evaluation results. For regions with red monitoring and evaluation results, no new projects will be arranged in principle, except for photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects, affordable online demonstration projects that have been arranged for construction, and projects that will be sent and received through trans-provincial and trans-regional transmission channels.
Monitoring and Evaluation Results of 2018 Photovoltaic Power Generation Environment
According to the monitoring and evaluation results of the photovoltaic market in 2018, Gansu and Xinjiang, which are in the first and second category resource areas, and Tibet, which is in the third category resource area, are still red. Among them, the newly-built photovoltaic power generation project in Tibet will be managed by the autonomous region according to the management requirements of the entire power consumption in the region, monitoring and early warning, etc.
In areas with orange monitoring and evaluation results, new projects should be rationally regulated and controlled on the premise of putting forward effective measures to ensure the improvement of the market environment. Areas with green monitoring and evaluation results can push forward the project construction in an orderly manner on the basis of the implementation of the conditions for receiving the network.
Clear construction period
This draft strictly limits the time limit for grid connection. For projects that are included in the scope of national compensation, grid connection should be completed in full capacity before the end of the quarter in which they are expected to be put into production. If grid connection is not completed within the time limit, grid connection tariff subsidy will be reduced by 0.01 yuan/kwh for each quarter overdue. If the grid connection has not been completed within two quarters after the quarter where the application is put into production, the project subsidy qualification shall be cancelled, which shall be taken as an important factor for environmental monitoring and evaluation of photovoltaic power generation markets around the country and application for the next year.
Obviously, if the project cannot be completed on schedule, the enterprise will not only be punished accordingly, but also the local government will be affected. If the monitoring and evaluation results in the region change from orange to red, or from green to orange, it will have an impact on the power station development in the region next year. At the same time, this provision also urges the local government to fulfill the spirit of the contract to a certain extent and to avoid the occurrence of temporary changes and land price hikes.
Stock items that have been incorporated into the national scale
For photovoltaic projects that have been started but have not been connected to the grid, those that cannot be fully connected to the grid by the end of 2019 will no longer be included in the scope of state subsidies. For projects that have not been connected to the grid, the deadline for completion of the connection is 2020. This includes the second phase of photovoltaic leading projects (Wuhai and Baotou).
According to the data released by 22 provinces and autonomous regions, 7.82GW of projects have been put on record and have not been started on the national construction scale. Although this part of the project was encouraged to voluntarily switch to parity online in the previous PV parity online solicitation draft, in combination with the current road cost of the project and the settlement of the project's location, there are still some large-scale projects that will receive a share of the 2.25 billion yuan subsidy.
V. Household Photovoltaic
According to the draft, the total amount of household photovoltaic subsidies in 2019 will be 750 million yuan, with a scale of 3.5 million kilowatts. The household subsidy calculated by these two figures is: 0.2142 yuan. This is far from the 0.18 yuan that flowed out of previous symposiums. However, in fact, some people in the industry have neglected the calculation of the minimum guaranteed hours. The minimum hours for the two and three types of resource areas are 1100 and 1300 hours respectively.
Source: Polaris Power Network
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