The photovoltaic market may show explosive growth. Global installed capacity is about 47 GW.

Affected by the photovoltaic policy and market influence, China's new PV installations in the first half of the year were less than 12 GW, a drop of more than 50%. However, the overseas PV market is performing well, with a global installed capacity of approximately 47 GW, exceeding market expectations.

 

Judging from the newly released policy indicators, the new installed capacity this year is expected to exceed 40 GW, which indicates that the PV market will show explosive growth in the second half of the year. At the same time, the concentration of the industry has further increased, and competition has shifted to tapping potential applications.

 

At the "Photovoltaic Industry Development Review for the First Half of 2019 and the Situational Prospects for the Second Half of the Year", Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that in the first half of the year, China's new PV installations fell by more than 50%. In the half year, the market may show explosive growth, which may lead to tight supply in some parts of the industrial chain. As the cost of photovoltaic power generation declines, it will stimulate the diversification of overseas markets.

 

Affected by the photovoltaic policy and market, China's new PV installations in the first half of the year were less than 12 GW, a drop of more than 50%. The newly installed capacity of centralized power stations was about 6.8 GW, down 43.3% year-on-year; Jiva, down 61.7% year-on-year. At the same time, the bidding accelerated the pace of subsidies.

 

According to the National Energy Administration's interpretation of the "Notice on Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2019", the scale of photovoltaic power generation construction will be around 50 million kilowatts this year. It is expected that the installed capacity of grid-connected aircraft will be 40 million kilowatts to 45 million kilowatts.

 

In comparison, the overseas PV market performed well in the first half of the year, with a global installed capacity of approximately 47 GW, exceeding market expectations. In fact, overseas markets have re-emerged since last year. In 2018, the global installed capacity was approximately 106 GW, of which the installed capacity in the overseas market was approximately 61.7 GW, an increase of 26.2%.

 

Driven by overseas markets, China's PV manufacturing sector continued to maintain a good growth trend in the first half of this year. Major manufacturing companies showed a booming production and sales situation and basically maintained full production. Among them, the output of polysilicon was 155,000 tons, up 8.4% year-on-year; the output of silicon wafers was 63 GW, up 26% year-on-year; the output of battery chips was 51 GW, up 30.8% year-on-year; the output of modules was 47 GW, up 11.9% year-on-year.

 

In the first half of the year, China's exports of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, cells, modules) reached US$10.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%. Among them, the export volume of battery chips increased significantly, and the export volume exceeded the whole year of 2018; the export volume of components also increased significantly, and the export volume was about 36 GW, which was nearly doubled year-on-year.

 

In terms of market performance, the market for component export countries and regions in the first half of the year diversified, with 16 countries and regions with exports exceeding US$100 million, only 12 in 2018; and 10 countries and regions with exports exceeding 1 GW. There are only four in 2018. At the same time, the European market has clearly recovered, and exports to major European countries such as the Netherlands, Spain, Ukraine, Portugal, Germany and Belgium have increased significantly.

 

According to industry insiders, at present, leading manufacturers have sufficient orders in the international market in the second half of the year, and some enterprises have begun to accept domestic orders selectively.

 

In addition to the bright export performance, another obvious trend in the photovoltaic industry is the further increase in concentration. Wang Bohua said that industrial integration is advancing rapidly, and enterprises with weak competitiveness are expediting to withdraw. Large enterprises and state-owned enterprises are accelerating their entry into the industry.

 

By the end of June, the number of polysilicon enterprises that had been discontinued had reached six, and the number of enterprises in production had decreased to 18, coupled with the large-scale expansion of leading enterprises, and the industrial concentration was further improved. The pattern of “strong and strong” in the field of silicon wafers and batteries has been consolidated, and SMEs have gradually lost their competitiveness due to low capacity utilization and lack of cost advantages. On the component side, due to the fact that the main markets in the first half of the year are overseas, the backbone enterprises have obvious advantages in brand, technology and marketing, and SMEs may become their foundries or stop production restructuring.

 

Wang Bohua believes that with the low price of online and bidding project policies, the domestic PV market is expected to resume growth in the second half of the year. Coupled with the continued growth of overseas markets, China's PV industry is expected to maintain a healthy development trend. At the same time, the scale and concentration of the head enterprises will be further enhanced, and the competition will also shift from a single reduction in manufacturing costs to a tapping application.

 

Tao Ye, deputy director of the Renewable Energy Development Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that from the newly released policy indicators, the new installed capacity this year is expected to exceed 40 GW, and the proportion of affordable projects is expected to be around 20%; It is expected to reach 45 GW to 50 GW.

 

At the same time, overseas markets will remain strong. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that global PV market demand is expected to be 123 GW to 149 GW this year. The international analyst body IHS is also optimistic about the global PV market and is expected to reach 123 GW.

 

Source: Economic Daily